Today is Monday, July 8th. The House and Senate are both in session this week. Next week lawmakers will not be in Washington due to the Republican National Convention.
Rep. Elect Greg Lopez (R-CO) will be sworn in today to replace Rep. Ken Buck, who resigned in March. Following Lopez’s swearing in, the House will be composed of 220 Republicans and 213 Democrats.
3 BIG THINGS: AROUND THE BELTWAY
1. BIDEN CONTINUES TO FEND OFF DEMOCRATIC DEFECTIONS
This week House Democrats and President Biden are of particular interest, with some senior House Democrats calling for the President to bow out of the race before it’s too late.
Following a Democratic leadership call yesterday, reports began to circulate that several senior Democrats, including Reps. Jerry Nadler, Adam Smith, Joe Morelle, and Mark Takano, expressed to colleagues that President Biden should step aside as the Democratic nominee.
The calls for Biden to step aside come after a poor debate performance against Donald Trump and an underwhelming follow-up interview with ABC’s George Stephanopoulos that aired last Friday.
Biden responded to these calls this morning in a letter to his fellow Democrats, in which he opened in saying, “I want you to know that despite all the speculation in the press and elsewhere I am firmly committed to staying in this race, to running this race to the end, and to beating Donald Trump.”
Biden also pointed to the primary process as a source of strength, saying it was “open to anyone who wanted to run. Only three people chose to challenge me. One fared so badly that he left the primaries to run as an independent. Another attacked me for being too old and was soundly defeated. The voters of the Democratic Party have voted. They have chosen me to be the nominee of the party.”
And, to add to the defense, Biden called into MSNBC’s Morning Joe this morning to express his frustration for the “elites of the party,” calling on them to challenge him at the Democratic National Convention in August.
Biden also took the opportunity to highlight his appeal to voters, saying during recent public events that the reception he has gotten from the average voter does not reflect the opinion of those calling for him to step down.
House Democrats will hold their caucus meeting tomorrow morning somewhere off the Capitol grounds to allow political discussions to take place. The one thing on their minds: Joe Biden.
2. NATO SUMMITT APPROACHES POLITICS
NATO members will seek to hash out agreements on Ukraine during this week’s summit in D.C. Domestic politics will compete for their attention.
This week NATO members will convene in Washington for a summit to mark the 75th anniversary of the alliance. The key agenda points for the 32 allied nations in attendance will center on defense and deterrence against Russia and other aggressors amidst the continued war in Ukraine.
NATO Leaders hope to reach an agreement to guarantee at least another year of financial support to Ukraine from member nations. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also recently announced the alliance will establish a command post in Germany to take over international support for Ukraine.
The focus will also be on President Biden, who as the host of the summit will have a packed calendar of public and private events with world leaders, who he will have to convince he is still fit to be a global leader.
Another political point of interest for those in attendance is the prospect of a second Trump presidency. Trump has previously criticized NATO member nations for not meeting their defense spending targets, thus forcing the United States to bear the cost of global defense.
The Summit will run from Tuesday to Thursday. On Thursday, heads of state in attendance will participate in a press conference, during which questions directed towards Biden will likely ignore the NATO business at hand and quickly move into a discussion surrounding Biden’s commitment to the presidential race.
3. DUAL-TRACK APPROPRIATIONS MARKUPS THIS WEEK
The House will continue its work on Fiscal 2025 appropriations while the Senate is just getting started. Topline numbers will still be an issue come October.
This week the House will vote on the FY25 Legislative Branch appropriations bill, which covers funding for the House and Senate as well as agencies like the Architect of the Capitol and the Capitol Police, among many others.
At the committee level, House appropriators have planned markups on Tuesday for the Commerce-Justice-Science, Interior-Environment, and Energy-Water Development appropriations bills. On Wednesday, the committee plans to mark the Labor-HHS-Education, Transportation-HUD, and Agriculture-FDA bills. They will also consider revised 302(b) subcommittee allocations.
On the Senate side, the Appropriations Committee will kick of its markups on Thursday with the MilCon-VA, Agriculture-FDA, and Legislative Branch bills. Senate appropriators will also consider 302(b) subcommittee allocations.
While it’s still relatively early in the process, appropriators from both chambers are gearing for a fight over topline spending numbers. House Republicans plan to increase defense spending by 1% over FY24, as agreed to last year during the debt limit deal but have also planned a 6% cut to non-defense spending, a departure from the terms.
Senate appropriators are planning an increase over 1% in spending for both defense and non-defense programs, which will certainly cause a problem with House Republicans once both chambers must reach an agreement on FY25 spending.
Also at issue is timing. Lawmakers are out of town for all of October this year for campaigns. There’s a very good chance that the current fiscal year will end on October 1st without a finished appropriations process for FY25, meaning a continuing resolution will be needed until after the November elections, at least.
3 BIG THINGS: POLITICS AND POLLING
1. U.S. PRESIDENT – BETTING ODDS: BIDEN AND HARRIS VIRTUALLY TIE
Trump 55.5% chance of winning
Biden 18.2% chance of winning
Harris 12.0% chance of winning
2. U.S. PRESIDENT – BATTLEGROUND STATES: DOMINATED BY TRUMP; MORE STATES TO JOIN THE LIST?
North Carolina – Trump +5.8
Arizona – Trump +5.4
Nevada – Trump +4.6
Pennsylvania – Trump +4.5
Georgia – Trump +3.7
Wisconsin – Trump +1.5
Michigan – Trump +0.6
New Battlegrounds?
Minnesota – Biden +2.5 (polling in June)
New Hampshire – Trump +2 (polling in July)
Virginia – Tied (polling in June)
New Mexico – Biden +2 (polling in June)
3. FIGHT FOR THE U.S. SENATE – DEMOCRATS MUST WIN ALL 9 TO KEEP THE SENATE
Arizona – Gallego +5.3
Maryland – Alsobrooks + 8 (polling in June)
Michigan – Slotkin +2.2
Montana – Sheehy+4.1
Nevada – Rosen +5.8
Ohio – Brown +6.3
Pennsylvania – Casey +5.2
Texas – Cruz +7.8
Wisconsin – Baldwin +7.8
YOUR GOVERNMENT AT WORK THIS WEEK
EXPECTED HOUSE FLOOR ACTION
Legislation Considered Under Suspension of the Rules:
H.R. 7377 – Royalty Resiliency Act, as amended (Sponsored by Rep. Hunt / Natural Resources Committee)
H.R. 897 – Alabama Underwater Forest National Marine Sanctuary and Protection Act, as amended (Sponsored by Rep. Carl / Natural Resources Committee)
H.R. 5770 – Water Development Improvement Act, as amended (Sponsored by Rep. Neguse / Natural Resources Committee)
H.R. 6062 – To restore the ability of the people of American Samoa to approve amendments to the territorial constitution based on majority rule in a democratic act of self-determination, as authorized pursuant to an Act of Congress delegating administration of Federal territorial law in the territory to the President, and to the Secretary of the Interior under Executive Order 10264, dated June 29, 1951, under which the Constitution of American Samoa was approved and may be amended without requirement for further congressional action, subject to the authority of Congress under the Territorial Clause in article IV, section 3, clause 2 of the United States Constitution (Sponsored by Del. Radewagen / Natural Resources Committee)
H.R. 5443 – Accelerating Appraisals and Conservation Efforts Act, as amended (Sponsored by Rep. Lee (NV) / Natural Resources Committee)
H.R. 5441 – Long Island Sound Restoration and Stewardship Reauthorization Act of 2023 (Sponsored by Rep. LaLota / Natural Resources Committee)
Legislation Considered Pursuant to a Rule:
H.R. 7700 – Stop Unaffordable Dishwasher Standards Act (Sponsored by Rep. Langworthy / Energy and Commerce Committee)
H.R. 7637 – Refrigerator Freedom Act (Sponsored by Rep. Miller-Meeks / Energy and Commerce Committee)
H. J. Res. 165 – Providing for congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United States Code, of the rule submitted by the Department of Education relating to “Nondiscrimination on the Basis of Sex in Education Programs or Activities Receiving Federal Financial Assistance”. (Sponsored by Rep. Miller (IL) / Education and the Workforce Committee)
H.R. 8281 – Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act (Sponsored by Rep. Roy / House Administration Committee)
H.R. 8772 – Legislative Branch Appropriations Act, 2025 (Sponsored by Rep. Valadao / Appropriations Committee)
Legislation that may be considered:
Veto message to accompany H. J. Res. 109 – Providing for congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United States Code, of the rule submitted by the Securities and Exchange Commission relating to “Staff Accounting Bulletin No. 121”. (Sponsored by Rep. Flood / Financial Services Committee)
SCHEDULED HOUSE HEARINGS
The House Energy and Commerce Communications and Technology Subcommstee will hold a meeting on the FY 2025 Federal Communications Commission Agency Budget on Tuesday, July 9 at 10:00 am
The House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Innovation, Data, and Commerce will hold a hearing on the FY 2025 Federal Trade Commission Budget on Tuesday, July 9 at 10:30 am
The House Homeland Security Subcommittee on Border Security and Enforcement will hold a hearing titled “Smart Investments: Technology’s Role in a Multi-Layered Border Security Strategy” on Tuesday, July 9 at 2:00 pm
The House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Global Health, Global Human Rights, and International Organizations will hold a hearing titled “Examining the 2024 Annual Trafficking in Persons Report: Progress over Politics” on Tuesday, July 9 at 2:00 pm
The House Transportation and Infrastructure Subcommittee on Aviation will hold a hearing titled “Eliminating Bottlenecks: Examining Opportunities to Recruit, Retain, and Engage Aviation Talent” on Wednesday, July 10 at 10:00 am
EXPECTED SENATE FLOOR ACTION
The Senate is expected to consider judicial and executive nominations this week.
SCHEDULED SENATE HEARINGS
The Senate Committee on Aging will hold a hearing titled “Hearings to examine health care transparency, focusing on lowering costs and empowering patients” on Thursday, July 11 at 10:00 am
The Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee will hold a hearing titled “Hearings to examine what Congress can do to end the medical debt crisis in America” on Thursday, July 11 at 10:00 am
The Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee will hold a hearing titled “Hearings to examine the need to protect Americans’ privacy and the AI Accelerant” on Thursday, July 11 at 10:00 am